Singapore's next Prime Minister is...
I discuss what the leadership crisis indicates for Singapore's political future.
Have you placed bets with your friends on whom the next Prime Minister of Singapore is going to be yet? I certainly have.
At present, discussions surrounding this momentous event tend to be missing something. It is irrelevant whether he “stepped aside” because he is:
in poor health,
too much older than his peers,
a poor electoral performer, or
simply lacking in charisma.
All the above likely contributed; to pick one is to miss the forest for the trees.
The most intriguing thing to me is that such a decision was made at all.
The PAP are world-renowned for their leadership succession planning. Each outgoing Prime Minster has rolled out the red carpet for the next, long in advance. There has never been much mystery in the process. When a Prime Minister steps aside, the public already knows who will be taking over. The baton is passed, neatly and orderly, to the next in line to the throne.
For whatever reason, that’s not happening this time.
Admittedly, Singapore’s history should be too brief to make much of this. We’ve only had 3 Prime Ministers ever. There have been only two transitions of Prime Ministership in Singapore’s history. With only two data points, how can we be so assured that all handovers will be well-managed? If you flipped a coin twice and got heads both times, you wouldn’t conclude that the coin always comes up heads!
Of course, we’re not dealing with coinflips here. We’re talking about a long-standing PAP narrative used to justify their power. They are the party of pragmatism, safeguarding Singapore’s interests with long-term planning. The other parties only know how to play to the public, and don’t consider the consequences. As a result, the PAP are the only party that can govern Singapore.
Heng Swee Keat’s announcement leads the public to question the truth of this narrative. This key PAP narrative has not quite been fundamentally undermined, but it is no longer a given. After all, if the PAP cannot plan for leadership succession, they may not be able to plan for much else either.
Now, it may well be that this was a personal decision by Heng Swee Keat, but I doubt it. I am certain that the party leadership prompted this announcement. This, of course, begs a few questions: why this decision, and why now?
I can't imagine that this was an easy choice for the PAP leadership to make. You must either:
Stick with your unpopular candidate and hope Singaporeans “trust the system”, or,
Change tack, casting doubts on the party’s well-regarded long-term planning.
I suppose the party leadership concluded that damage control was necessary. Only time will tell whether this was the right call by them. The decision highlights cracks in the PAP’s model of governance, and they are only growing by the day. I wouldn’t be surprised if selecting the next PM takes at least a year; who would really want the job now? After all, the PM will have to deal with one of the strongest political headwinds the PAP has ever faced.
Public discontent of the government's handling of many issues is growing. For starters, think of the tudung, or domestic helper abuse, or environmental protection. Then consider Singapore's real estate market, a bubble waiting to burst. The death of those of the Pioneer generation may well be the death knell of the PAP.
The PAP may hit "historic" lows in the popular vote in back-to-back elections. Next election, the WP will likely be reaping the rewards of their own East Coast Plan. I suspect either the PSP or SDP will find themselves elected to Parliament as well.
This is not to imply all will be sunshine and roses for the opposition either. The Leader of the Opposition will have to coordinate several clamouring opposition groups. Opposition parties will soon have to mature into credible alternatives to the PAP. And the stakes are high. Should he fail, Singapore will have neither a strong PAP nor a decent alternative. The looming possibility of such an outcome terrifies me.
The point is, a vast political shake-up in Singapore is soon approaching. The next two decades will be transformative for Singapore's political and civic scene. Whether it ends up being for the better or for the worse remains to be seen.
The coming years will mark a critical inflection point in Singapore's history. It is the dawn of a new political era in Singapore, with the role of the PAP surprisingly uncertain.
What an exciting time to be a Singaporean.
Yet again, exploring a new writing style! I like how it came across sharper and more succinct; I may try to channel this voice more in the future.
Until next time,
~ Kai